The key points in this article are as follows:

• The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be.

• Seven key things you need to know about Australian housing are: its expensive and highly indebted; but its very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates still matter a lot; but its been chronically undersupplied for years; forecasting cyclical swings in home prices is very hard; and housing has similar long term investment returns to shares.

• The surge in immigration is estimated to push the national housing shortfall to around 200,000 dwellings this financial year.

• Price gains are expected to be around 5% this year with high mortgage rates dragging but the supply shortfall supporting prices. The risks are finely balanced.

• The key for savvy investors, given the pressure from high interest rates relative to still low rental yields making most property investments cash flow negative, is to look for properties offering decent rental yields.

Read full article from Dr Shane Oliver