RATES ON HOLD

The RBA has opted to leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.5%.

As lenders continue with their out of cycle rate increases, at its board meeting today the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged.

This follows new data released yesterday that indicates the strong Sydney and Melbourne property markets may be close to peaking following APRA's intervention into the levels of interest only and investment lending the banks are funding.

It also appears the Reserve Bank is waiting to gauge the impact of next Tuesday's federal budget on overall economic sentiment.

Global growth looking healthy

Despite numerous geopolitical threats (Eurozone elections, tensions between the US and China, North Korea, etc.), worries about the demise of the so-called "Trump trade" and shares being overbought and due for a correction at the start of the year, share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient with only a minor pull back into their recent lows. This despite a more significant fall back in bond yields. Partly this is because the geopolitical threats have not proven to be major problems (at least so far) and Trump remains focussed on his pro- business policy agenda (he has already embarked on deregulation and his tax reform proposals – while lacking in details – indicate that tax reform remains a key objective). More fundamentally though, markets have been underpinned by an improvement in global growth. This is likely to continue. 

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Rates: Where do we go from here?

The RBA provided no surprises following its April board meeting leaving the official cash rate on hold at 1.5%. The RBA remains more confident regarding global growth, see Australian economic growth as moderate, regards the labour market as being mixed, sees a gradual rise in underlying inflation and continues to see conditions in the housing market as varying considerably across the country, but sees recent regulatory measures as reducing the risks associated with high and rising household debt.

This note looks at the outlook for the cash rate, the impact of bank rate hikes and the implications for investors. Read more here

Where are we now?

It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80% (held back by relatively higher interest rates, the absence of money printing, the plunge in commodity prices from their 2011 highs and the high $A).

An obvious question is how close the next downturn is, which ultimately relates to where we are in the investment cycle. 

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Rates Remain On Hold

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. But according to Macquarie, we can expect two more cuts this year before economic economic conditions begin to turn around. Watch here.

Rick Maggi

honeymoon over?

Since the US election last November, US and global shares rallied around 8% and Australian shares rallied around 12%. But with Trump now inaugurated as President we are at a point where that optimism is being tested. Read on...

Key Themes for 2017...

Despite a terrible start to the year and a few political surprises along the way, 2016 saw good returns for diversified investors who held their nerve. Balanced super funds had returns around 7.5% which is pretty good given inflation was just 1.5%.

2017 is commencing with far less fear than seen a year ago but there is consternation regarding Donald Trump's policies, political developments in Europe and the growth outlook.

this note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook and key issues around it in simple dot point form.

Read more here.                           

The US Fed Hikes Rates

A year ago the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the GFC began. However, its initial move combined with worries about just about everything to give us a bout of share market weakness into early 2016 before investors realised that there was indeed no reason to fear the Fed after which things got back on track.

Now as widely expected we have just seen the Fed move again – raising its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0.25-0.5% to the range of 0.5-0.75%, begging the question whether we will go through another bout of market ructions. However, this time around the backdrop is very different to a year ago.

This note looks at the key issues.

Rates on hold

The RBA has opted to leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.5%. This month’s Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision has just been announced; the last decision for this year in what has certainly been a jam packed 12 months. I’m pleased to share this update with you and the thoughts on why the Reserve Bank of Australia has made this call.

The RBA elected to adopt a wait and see approach over the Christmas and New Year period and has left the cash rate on hold at 1.5%. Between now and its next meeting in February, the Reserve Bank will weigh up a number of factors including the ‘Trump effect’ which some lenders are attributing to rising funding costs and consequently increasing fixed loan interest rates. Low inflation, slow economic growth, improving commodity prices, a stronger Australian dollar and ongoing concerns around some inner city property markets are among the other factors the RBA will need to take into account.

Rick Maggi