Introduction
Investment markets continue to be buffeted by multiple uncertainties, but so far returns this year have been okay as shares have climbed the “wall of worry”. This note takes a look at the main questions investors commonly have in a simple Q & A format.
Have we seen the peak in inflation?
Inflation is still too high but it looks to have peaked. US inflation led on the way up and it looks to be leading on the way down. It has fallen to 5%yoy from a high of 9.1% in mid last year. Supply bottlenecks have improved, freight costs have fallen and slowing demand is reducing demand side inflation. While core services inflation excluding shelter remains sticky it is starting to slow, shelter (or rent) inflation also looks to have peaked and our US Pipeline Inflation Indicator continues to point to lower inflation.