Economics

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The trade war is back

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The trade war is back

After taking a back seat over the last six months as negotiations appeared to make progress the US/China trade war is back on with the President Trump – “tariff man” - ramping up tariffs on Chinese imports again and threatening more and China moving to retaliate. This note takes a simple Q & A approach to the key issues…

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What does a swing to the left mean for investors?

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What does a swing to the left mean for investors?

When I was in my early 20s I thought socialism might be the way to go. Two things happened. One I studied economics which led me to the conclusion that socialism/heavy state intervention doesn’t lead to the best outcome in terms of living standards for most…

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The Rough with the Smooth

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The Rough with the Smooth

A key to a successful investment experience is understanding how markets behave and developing the discipline to avoid rash decisions based on short time periods. The recent performance of the Australia and New Zealand share markets drives this home….

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Outlook for 2019...

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Outlook for 2019...

In this update, AMP’s Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, looks at what went wrong in 2018 (and its lessons), along with views of where 2019 is likely to go, and what to look out for. A straight forward, point by point report well worth a read…

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What happened??

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What happened??

Local share markets are now at a 22-month low. So what just happened and where are we headed?

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Are shares too expensive?

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Are shares too expensive?

Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so a crash is inevitable. As always, it’s a lot more complicated, but given the current turbulence in share markets it’s worth having a look at whether share markets are expensive or not as a guide to how vulnerable we are to further falls….

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A Question of Equilibrium

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A Question of Equilibrium

“Sellers were out in force on the market today after negative news on the economy.” It’s a common line
in TV finance reports. But have you ever wondered that if there are so many sellers out there, who is buying?

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Australian Economy: 5 Things You Should Know...

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Australian Economy: 5 Things You Should Know...

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy…

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9 Keys To Successful Investing...

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9 Keys To Successful Investing...

In the rough and tumble of investment markets its very easy to get distracted: by talk of the next best thing that will make you rich, by the ever-present predictions of an imminent crash, by the worry list that constantly surrounds investment markets relating to growth, profits, interest rates, politics, etc…

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Trumponomics

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Trumponomics

For the most part Trump the pragmatist has dominated so far. But we have clearly seen a swing to Trump the populist this year – raising risks for investors...

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Is a US recession imminent?

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Is a US recession imminent?

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there has been an obsession with looking for the next recession…

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Fear Factor Investing

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Fear Factor Investing

Fear is a factor in many of our investment decisions. Now, that’s not always a bad thing because fear can be an effective motivator that overcomes another great emotional roadblock for investors – procrastination…

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Strong returns, but storm clouds gather...

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Strong returns, but storm clouds gather...

After reviewing the returns of the last financial year, this note looks at the investment outlook for 2018-19 financial year…

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Is China ok?

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Is China ok?

It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”…

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Is An 'Itexit' Really On The Cards?

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Is An 'Itexit' Really On The Cards?

AMPs Dr Shane Oliver takes a closer look at the potential impact of the recent Italian elections…