Despite numerous geopolitical threats (Eurozone elections, tensions between the US and China, North Korea, etc.), worries about the demise of the so-called "Trump trade" and shares being overbought and due for a correction at the start of the year, share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient with only a minor pull back into their recent lows. This despite a more significant fall back in bond yields. Partly this is because the geopolitical threats have not proven to be major problems (at least so far) and Trump remains focussed on his pro- business policy agenda (he has already embarked on deregulation and his tax reform proposals – while lacking in details – indicate that tax reform remains a key objective). More fundamentally though, markets have been underpinned by an improvement in global growth. This is likely to continue.
Rates: Where do we go from here?
The RBA provided no surprises following its April board meeting leaving the official cash rate on hold at 1.5%. The RBA remains more confident regarding global growth, see Australian economic growth as moderate, regards the labour market as being mixed, sees a gradual rise in underlying inflation and continues to see conditions in the housing market as varying considerably across the country, but sees recent regulatory measures as reducing the risks associated with high and rising household debt.
This note looks at the outlook for the cash rate, the impact of bank rate hikes and the implications for investors. Read more here
Trump Tantrum?
Since the US elections back in November, the 'Trump Trade' has sharply boosted global share markets, based on the promise of lower taxes, less regulation and other 'pro-growth' policies. After a lengthy period of economic 'stagnation' (not quite true), the prospect of Donald Trump ushering-in a thrilling, no-holds-barred period of Reaganesque optimism is an intoxicating idea, no doubt contributing to his election in the first place.
But is all of this about to come unstuck? Quite possibly.
With a Presidency already under fire for possible Russian collusion, bogus wiretapping claims and a myriad of other missteps, you could be forgiven for thinking that you've just stepped out of a time machine and it's 1974 all over again.
Nixon aside, Trump's massively eroded political capital and growing credibility problem points to short-term danger for the sharemarket. If Trump is no longer trusted, or even liked, his capacity to swiftly enact his pro-growth agenda is suddenly at risk, and with it, the quick sharemarket gains made since last November.
And Trump's first litmus test will be tonight's vote on his revised healthcare bill. If the vote doesn't pass or is post-postponed, markets will be rattled. Brace yourself, but don't forget the opportunities that come with uncertainty - we've been here before.
Rick Maggi
GOODBYE EUROZONE?
The long running soap opera around whether the Eurozone will break up is now into its eighth year!
In 2015 all the focus was on the latest Greek tantrum and last year the big fear was that the populist/nationalist Brexit vote and Trump victory would lead to a surge in support for populist parties across Europe and drive a Eurozone break up.
There was no sign of this in Spanish and Austrian elections, but this will be put to the test again with elections this year in the Netherlands, France, Germany and maybe in Italy.
The fear is that a Eurozone break up will plunge the world’s third biggest economic region into recession and financial chaos, which would adversely affect the global economy and Australia. Such a fear may be exaggerated – the UK hardly imploded after Brexit – but that’s the worry.
Investment Shock Absorbers
Ever ridden in a car with worn-out shock absorbers? Every bump is jarring, every corner stomach-churning and every red light an excuse to assume the brace position. Owning an undiversified portfolio can trigger similar reactions. Read on
Rick Maggi
WILL THE SUPER REFORMS HURT?
From 1 July 2017, a range of super reforms announced in the 2016 Federal Budget will take effect.
For most people, the impact of these changes will be positive or neutral.
Super remains a very attractive place to save for retirement. And there may be opportunities to grow your super and retire with more.
If your income is below $250,000 (for 2017/18), while you build up your super, pre-tax contributions and investment earnings will generally continue to be taxed at the low rate of up to a maximum of 15%, not your marginal tax rate of up to 49%.
Also, when you retire, you can still transfer a generous amount into a superannuation pension, where no tax is paid on investment earnings and payments are generally tax-free at age 60 and over.
Next steps...
Once you have read through this guide, you should consider making an appointment with your financial adviser. They can assess the impact the super reforms could have for you, as well as review your retirement savings plans and the strategies you are using.
Beyond that, as we head towards the end of another financial year, now is a great time to see if there is anything else you could be doing to tax-effectively build and protect your wealth.
If you don’t have an adviser, you call us (Westmount Financial) on 9382 8885 to arrange an appointment.
View a basic, 'at a glance' guide here.
Rick Maggi
Where are we now?
It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80% (held back by relatively higher interest rates, the absence of money printing, the plunge in commodity prices from their 2011 highs and the high $A).
An obvious question is how close the next downturn is, which ultimately relates to where we are in the investment cycle.
Go Bankrupt & Lose Super?
Your three safe havens to protect assets from insolvency:
1. Low-risk spouse (eg. spouse is a teacher)
2.‘Clean skin’ Family Trusts (eg. no employees)
With the downturn in the economy the Trustee-in-Bankruptcy has its eye on Super. The latest case, Morris v Morris, shows how desperate the Trustee-in-Bankruptcy has become - such underhand tactics puts greater risk on the financial planner.
Sure, after bankruptcy, the Trustee-in-Bankruptcy can’t touch your Super received as a lump sum. However, the Trustee-in-Bankruptcy takes your Super where:
- you transferred assets into Super to defeat creditors; and
- you, as a bankrupt, get pension payments from Super
Ask your financial planner:
- Why is lump sum Super protected - but pensions are lost if the beneficiary in the Will is bankrupt?
- Why are reversionary Pensions dangerous for Will beneficiaries with few assets?
- Five ways parents can protect their Super at death.
TIME FOR Some good news...
Isn't the news depressing right now? The rise of populist, nationalist demagogues like Trump, the loss of public faith in key institutions, attacks on science and reason, and the return to isolationism appear to be reversing the advances of liberalism.
But the media's understandable and necessary focus on day-to-day news means it's easy to overlook positive longer-term global developments in areas like reducing extreme poverty, cutting child mortality rates and improving literacy.
Max Roser, a researcher at Oxford University, has put together a history of global living conditions in five charts. Share this with someone depressed by the news. It might just make their day.
Key Themes for 2017...
Despite a terrible start to the year and a few political surprises along the way, 2016 saw good returns for diversified investors who held their nerve. Balanced super funds had returns around 7.5% which is pretty good given inflation was just 1.5%.
2017 is commencing with far less fear than seen a year ago but there is consternation regarding Donald Trump's policies, political developments in Europe and the growth outlook.
this note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook and key issues around it in simple dot point form.
The US Fed Hikes Rates
A year ago the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the GFC began. However, its initial move combined with worries about just about everything to give us a bout of share market weakness into early 2016 before investors realised that there was indeed no reason to fear the Fed after which things got back on track.
Now as widely expected we have just seen the Fed move again – raising its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0.25-0.5% to the range of 0.5-0.75%, begging the question whether we will go through another bout of market ructions. However, this time around the backdrop is very different to a year ago.
This note looks at the key issues.
IT HAPPENED
Today’s US election results were a surprise to most and are likely to have a short-term impact on global share markets. Locally, our markets fell by just under 2% today, erasing gains made over the last two days - yes, after all of the media hysteria today (ie $34 billion ‘wiped off’ the sharemarket etc) markets are merely back to Monday’s levels.
Looking ahead, US markets look as if they might fall by roughly the same percentage this evening as investors weigh the potential pros and cons of a Trump presidency.
As we’ve seen before, these kinds of knee jerk reactions are typically short term in nature, so I would strongly suggest just ignoring the ‘noise’ over the coming weeks, and even consider taking advantage of market weakness, as long as you’re prepared to accept some short-term volatility.
We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely.
Interesting reading...
Bloomberg Rick Maggi
US elections: implications for investors
Hillary's 11-point lead from just a few short weeks ago has since evaporated, with the two candidates now running neck and neck.
So what are the implications for Australian and global investors? Read more here
54.2 million worries
We are going through one of those periods where it seems there is a long list of things for investors to worry about: the US election; the Fed; ever present fears about a break of the Eurozone; and China. This article, from Dr Shane Oliver (AMP Capital) discusses some of the very real risks out there and how to manage the noise and worry. Definitely worth reading.
Read more here Rick Maggi
The Australian Housing Market
Housing matters a lot in Australia. Having a house on a quarter acre block is part of the "Aussie dream". Housing is a popular investment destination. And the housing cycle is a key component of the economic cycle and closely connected to interest rate movements.
But in the last 15 years or so it has taken on a darker side as a surge in house prices that started in the late 1990s has led to poor affordability and gone hand in hand with surging household debt. Reflecting this, predictions of an imminent property crash bringing down the Australian economy have been repeated ad nauseam since 2003.
This note looks at the risks of a property crash, particularly given the rising supply of units, implications from the property cycle for economic growth and how investors should view it.
Do You Have an Estate Directory?
Ok, so you've planned for retirement, you have insurances in place, your Wills are up to date, and you've appointed Enduring Powers of Attorney. You couldn't be more organised - well done!
But do your loved ones know where your Will is located? How about your insurance and superannuation documents? Do they know who your Lawyer, Financial Advisor and Accountant's are? How about that key to the safe or special filing cabinet?
You can see where I'm going with this.
An 'Estate Directory' is a simple but extremely useful document to have in times of crisis. Basically, it's a list of important contacts and the location of documents that you can give to your next of kin, leave in an obvious place, or lodge with us, your Financial Advisor.
Don't let your well considered plans unravel at the worst possible time. If you're a client of Westmount, ask for an Estate Directory today (it's free).
Rick Maggi
The US Presidential Election
The attached note looks at the US Presidential and congressional elections that are looming large, especially now that the polls between Donald Trump and Hillary clinton are neck and neck.
$500k Lifetime Limit Scrapped
The Government today announced major changes to the superannuation package contained in the 2016 budget, including scrapping the backdated, lifetime cap of $500,000 on non-concessional contributions (NCCs). However, anyone with over $1.6 million in super will not be allowed to make further NCCs. Today’s announcement includes several other changes.
The full announcement by the Government is attached here.
The announcement does not change the lowering of the concessional contribution to $25,000, and with the reduction in NCCs from $180,000 a year to $100,000, weaker flows into superannuation than in the past can be expected. It’s likely to hit SMSF inflows harder, since these are generally used by wealthier investors who can afford the extra contributions.
Read a full summary of the superannuation package here.
Home values rise 1.1%
The CoreLogic Home Value Index recorded a 1.1% rise in dwelling values in August, with six of the eight capital cities recording a lift in dwelling values over the month. Performance of the combined regional areas remained comparatively soft, with dwelling values virtually flat at -0.1%.
The strong combined capital cities headline result masks the underlying movements associated with dwelling values which are trending differently from region to region and across the broad property types.
In Sydney and Melbourne, dwelling values continued to increase at more than 1% month-on-month, with the cumulative growth (June 2012 to date) now reaching 64% in Sydney and 44% in Melbourne. Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, the third highest rate of capital gain over the same period was Brisbane at 18%, and was as low as 4% for Darwin.
The most recent twelve month period has seen dwelling values rise by a lower 7% per annum, with Perth and Darwin the only capital cities to record a fall in dwelling values over the same period, dealing by 4.2% in both cities. Softer economic conditions and a significant fall in overseas migration rates, together with an increasing net outflow of residents to other states and territories, has made a substantial dent in housing demand, reducing values and rental returns.
Read the full report here.
