News Updates
AS IT HAPPENS
China's growth cycle is stabilising and that's good news for Australia's economy, our markets, and possibly your super fund. AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver weighs in on recent fears over slowing Chinese growth with a typically calm, well balanced commentary. As always, his article is easy to read and not overly technical. Enjoy! Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Retail sales growth has been poor for four years now reflecting a combination of consumer caution, falling wealth, “excessive” interest rates, the strongly rising $A, surging electricity prices, slowing income growth and job insecurity. With some of these factors now fading or set to fade, retail sales growth is likely to pick-up a notch next year.
This should see growth pick up to around 4 to 5% pa from 2-3% over the past four years. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
With US Republicans and Democrats going head to head over budget and debt negotiations, the rest of the world looks on powerless and bemused. Beyond some of the media hysteria, in this article AMP Capital's Shane Oliver provides a balanced, sober look at the debt ceiling standoff and the likely outcome. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Earlier today, the US Congress agreed to end the partial government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. Some positives...
1. While the run up to the 11th hour decision indicated that brinkmanship is alive and well in the US, the clear message is that at the end of the day the majority of US politicians will not let the US default on its debt servicing or broader spending commitments. As Winston Churchill once said "you can always rely on the American's to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else".
2. While the brinkmanship seen in the US on a semi-regular basis is not good for confidence, it is not all bad as it has let to a more balanced solution to US budget and debt problems than would have been the case if either side of politics had complete control.
3. The legislation for the temporary fix appears to include a rule that would allow the President to increase the debt ceiling unless Congress voted against it with a tow thirds majority in each chamber. Such an approach could allow the Republicans to vote against a debt ceiling increase in February but not stop it.
4. Finally, having been so badly burned over the last few weeks, Republicans may not be so willing to set off another Government shutdown and/or debt ceiling crisis early next year. Americans appear to have largely blamed them for the latest crisis and their favourable rating dropped to the lowest level in 20 years. With the mid-term Congressional elections coming up next year, they may not be prepared to risk a re-run or worse as it could mean they will lose control of the US House of Representatives. So another extreme showdown may end up being avoided next year.
With the worry list continuing to diminish, many believe that shares are likely to rally into year end with further gains next year, with some predicting that Australian shares could hit the 5500 mark by year end and 6000 by 30 June next year. While this may seem overly optimistic, an ASX at 6000 would still be about 13% below its all time high from 7 years earlier. Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been strong over the last three years, recovering from the GFC driven slump of 2008/09. So can these high returns be maintained or are we moving into a lower return phase? Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Last night, the US Federal Reserve decided that the US economy just isn't strong enough (yet) to begin tapering off its $85 billion per month bond buying program (ie printing money). At the time of writing, global markets have reacted predictably, pushing share markets to all time highs, and here in Australia to a five year high.
All eyes on November/December for the next instalment. In the meantime, enjoy the market bounce, but be careful out there. Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
On Thursday our time, the US Federal Reserve will likely make a statement about their quantitative easing program. Most are expecting the US central bank to begin 'tapering off' bond purchases (or in layman's terms - printing money) between now and November. While no one expects anything too extreme, this signifies a change in approach and needs to be considered by investors. If you're wondering what this all means (it's a technical area), please call me personally. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
One old adage about investment is that you buy a bunch of reliable stocks, stick them in your bottom drawer and forget about them. That ignores one pesky fact: Nothing stays the same. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
In this update, AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver takes a close look at where we are right now in the cycle, company profits and the risks and opportunities going forward. In a background of growing worry over Australia's economy, this is a timely and poignant article. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Ask any of your friends what they wish they had more of in life and perhaps a few might say a faster car or bigger house - but what most people are really looking for is more time.
Investing your hard earned money in a smarter, more efficient manner not only allows you to spend more time focussing on a smaller selection of investments, it also allows you to spend more time on other, more important matters beyond the process of investing, like your health, your family, your friendships or your business.
Your Financial Planner is the same. By investing your superannuation or pension fund more efficiently, they'll have more time to help you achieve your goals, improve your retirement outcome, reduce your tax, protect your estate, and just generally help to control the controllable.
At Westmount, we believe that markets work, 'asset allocation' drives performance more than anything else and costs really do matter. In other words, it is infinitely possible to construct an effective investment portfolio (superannuation or otherwise) in a way that doesn't require constant monitoring, regular tinkering and an enormous fee to pull it all together. This has some obvious benefits for clients - lower costs, less stress, simplification and, yes, more time.
So if you believe that your life is a little more complicated than it should be, particularly in the area of investing or superannuation, don't just shrug your shoulders and accept the way things are. Instead, ask yourself, what else could I be doing with my precious time? And then call us to change the script for good. Read all about 'indexing' here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
This note looks at the deal to avert the US fiscal cliff along with its debt ceiling and broader economic outlook. Generally pretty positive for 2013 (easy reading). Enjoy! Rick Maggi. Read here
AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver weighs in on the recent round in emerging market currencies and assets. A cautionary article worth a read. Rick Maggi. Read more here
With the Coalition's plan to impose a 1.5% levy on the top 3200 companies in Australia to help pay for their six-month paid parental leave proposal, we've had a few questions about franking credits and how the proposal might impact investors and retirees. While the full details are yet to be announced, based on the current rumours, the actual impact on franked dividends would be fairly minimal - much ado about nothing. The following is a back to basics explanation of franking credits for the uninitiated… What are Franking Credits?
It's often hard to give up on the idea that investment should be exciting - an interesting article from Dimensional VP, Jim Parker. Rick Maggi Read more here.
An excellent summary of the current residential property market, and where it is likely heading. Enjoy. Rick Maggi. Read more here
Picking the market sector that will outperform and timing it to maximise returns is a difficult thing to do. Produced by Vanguard Australia, the following tables graphically illustrate the performance of different sectors (within the Australian share market) and the performance of different regions (international shares).
The take away is simple one. Building a portfolio within broadly diversified equity funds at the core can help lower risk and smooth out peaks and troughs in returns over time. Rick Maggi
In this article AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver takes a look at potential implications for investors as move towards and beyond the Federal Election. Interesting reading. Rick Maggi. The Federal Election
Every year Vanguard releases it's 'Vanguard Index Chart' and it's always worth a look. The chart illustrates what the value of $10,000 invested twenty years ago might be worth today had you invested in various sectors such as Australian shares, commercial property, cash etc. Along the twenty-year journey you see the impact of important events (both positive and negative) such as 9/11, US subprime and the Japanese Tsunami on markets and the value of the original investment. Vanguard also includes a second graph, called 'the power of diversification' which shows the performance of each sector in percentage terms, every year, for the last twenty years.
Seeing visual proof of market volatility (all of them), each having their day in the sun, followed by less than happy times, serves as a potent reminder of the importance of diversification and patience. We can all do with some gentle encouragement, especially during tougher, challenging times, so I like to keep this chart on my wall! Rick Maggi. View charts here
"Low returns are shaping as the new normal" That was the headline in The Australian Financial Review in early July 2012 in anticipation of another grim year on global equity markets for Australian investors. How did that forecast turn out? Rick Maggi Read more here
The last financial year saw returns of over 20% from Australian and global shares, so what's in store for 2013/14? Rick Maggi Read more here
