Interest rates remain on hold

Happy Melbourne Cup Day!

The Reserve Bank Board met today and decided to keep official interest rates on hold at 1.5%.

The recently released September quarter inflation data confirmed that underlying inflation at 1.7% year on year was broadly in line with expectations, with fruit and vegetable price rises being offset by lower petrol prices on average. This release is probably the key determinant of the RBA's decision.

Macquarie Bank forecasts the most likely timing of further interest rate cuts to be February and May next year, as inflationary forces remain subdued.

The last RBA board meeting for 2016 will be held on Tuesday 6 December.

Next stop, US elections.

Rick Maggi

Are Bonds still worth the effort?

After 10 years stewarding the Reserve Bank of Australia through a tumultuous market and economic environment, marked by the GFC and Australia's economic rebalancing, Glenn Stevens has officially stepped down as Governor. 

All eyes will be focused on his successor, Philip Lowe, who inherits a record-low 1.5% cash rate, down from 2% one year ago and more than 5% prior to the GFC. 

How we got here is pretty well understood - weaker demand from Australia's major trading partners has contributed to lower commodity prices, slower domestic growth and inflation below the RBA's 2-3% target. On the bright side, a weakening of the currency, combined with low interest rates (which help drive house prices higher), has helped the economy remain resilient and rebalance. 

As cash rates have fallen, so too have bond yields, punishing income-oriented bond investors, and also leading some to question the role of bonds in their portfolios. And in Australia, we are lucky (again the lucky country!) by comparison given negative yields in Japan and much of Europe. 

I will leave it to Dr Lowe to prescribe monetary policy (hint: the market is pricing in some stability, with no anticipated moves over the next 6-12 months), but I would like to offer some perspective around how even at record low yields, bonds deserve your attention. And in some respects, low is a good thing! 

Let me explain. 

First, low yields on bonds need to be considered within the context of a low inflation environment. With inflation expected to hover at or below 2%, yields of a globally diversified portfolio of government and corporate bonds of between 2.5-3% should produce a positive, albeit small, inflation-adjusted return. Cash may struggle to do the same, and while dividend-paying equities may produce more income, they are also subject to much larger swings in price, particularly if the dividend comes under pressure. 

Second, and as important when constructing portfolios, what gets us excited are asset classes that diversify one another. This chart measures the rolling 5-year correlation between equity markets and changes in bond yields for both Australian and US markets. What it shows, is that even in an environment of low yields and low cash rates, bonds have continued to exhibit negativecorrelation with equities, meaning that they have continued to provide a dampening effect for investors' portfolios. 

Bonds remain an effective diversifier...

Interest Rates Steady

The RBA has resolved to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent ahead of a possible US rate hike on 21 September and the release of Australian CPI figures on 26 October.

As expected, RBA governor Glenn Stevens’ final meeting before handing over the reins to his successor Philip Lowe proved to be uneventful.

The decision to keep rates on hold was in line with market expectations, with the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures September 2016 contract pricing in a 95 per cent chance of ‘no change’ to the cash rate.

UBS chief economist Scott Haslem said the RBA is likely to remain on hold for the “foreseeable future” given firm growth data, a likely lower trend in the Australian dollar and concern about financial stability.

“While inflation will remain low, core inflation is likely to drift modestly higher from here,” Mr Haslem said.

The ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomics Analysis (CAMA) Shadow Board attached a 57 per cent probability to 1.5 per cent being the correct policy setting.

“The CAMA RBA Shadow Board clearly believes that the cash rate should not be cut any further,” said the Shadow Board. “After the RBA’s decision in August to cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 per cent, there is good reason to pause.

“Unemployment fell slightly, but only because of a large increase in part-time employment. With consumer price inflation equaling 1 per cent year-on-year, well below the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target band, and wage growth a modest 2.1 per cent year-on-year, there exist little immediate inflationary pressures,” said the Shadow Board.

Rick Maggi

Interest rate cut (finally)...

For the first time in 12 months, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced it cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent.

The RBA's decision to cut the official interest rate comes after a surprisingly low inflation figure of 1.3 per cent year-on-year was released last Wednesday.

The ASX futures market has been pricing in a 50/50 chance of a rate cut to 1.75 per cent versus 'no change' since the release of the inflation figures.

With a target inflation rate of between 2-3 per cent, concerns about a lack of growth in the Australian economy spurred by the low Consumer Price Index readings appear to have forced the RBA's hand.

Last week's low inflation numbers had made a May rate cut likely, despite the fact that the federal budget is on the same day.

For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.