The US election is shaping up as the next major risk event for 2016. BT's Tim Rocks discusses what a Trump presidency would mean for the global economy and markets.
a Trump presidency?
The Great Policy Rotation
For the last two decades, advanced country central banks have been focussed on price stability and have played the first line of defence in stabilising the economic cycle whereas fiscal policy has played back up, focussing more on fairness and efficiency. But we are starting to see debate about whether a new approach is needed. AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver discusses what a shift in policy approach (from monetary to fiscal policy) might mean for investors.
Banking On Europe
The European economy has started to recover and is now growing faster than the US. But markets have been fretting about the health of the European banking system and the potential for banking stress to unravel the recovery. Tim argues these concerns are overblown. While profitability is weak, European banks have recapitalised, the European Central Bank is lowering funding costs and governments appear willing to deal with the bad debt issue.
Interest rates cut to 1.5%
Megatrends
UK votes to leave
With UK voters narrowly voting to leave the EU markets, and Prime Minister David Cameron announcing his resignation, markets are reacting quite negatively to the news, as expected.
As outlined in the email the blog post below, the ‘Leave' vote will create a period of instability over the coming days and weeks, creating a potential buying opportunity in the short term. This may also add to the case for the RBA to cut interest rates, which was likely to happen anyway.
We’ll continue to monitor the situation, but in the meantime, it is important not to get too perturbed by the media frenzy as this is likely to be a storm in a teacup.
Enjoy your weekend (and stay away from the newspapers!).
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
History on the run...
When news breaks and markets move, content-starved media often invite talking heads to muse on the repercussions. Knowing the difference between this speculative opinion and actual facts can help investors keep their nerve.
The Economy: Not so bad
The past few weeks have been messy with Brexit, the Australian election, terrorist attacks and an attempted coup in Turkey. But rather than dwelling on what's happened so far this year, this article gives us 9 reasons why the future may begin to look a little brighter. A good read!
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver cuts through some of the current pessimism and finds some good, credible reasons to be optimistic. Be aware of the usual seasonal weakness, but don't let it paralyse you with fear... Read more here
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
2016/17 Federal Budget
As usual, the pre-Budget fears and scaremongering turned out to be largely unwarranted. With a significant focus on superannuation, last night's Federal Budget was in many ways a relief to the majority of Australians with superannuation and pensions. In fact, there were a number of positive proposals put forward like the removal not the work test and the reintroduction of tax deductible personal super contributions (up to $25,000). 2016-2017 Federal Budget Summary
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
The Polyphony of Markets
Dimensional's Jim Parker discusses the importance of international diversification within investment portfolios. The article serves as a timely reminder to superannuation members, retirees, and investors to look beyond attempting to pick winners and, instead, focusing on the bigger picture - or "the effect of how all the parts fit together". Worth a read. The Polyphony of Markets
Does your investment portfolio have the right balance?
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
Budget SPECULATION RIFE
There will be added interest in the Federal Budget announcement next week (May 3rd) as it's likely to be the final major economic statement the Government makes before the election later this year, quite possibly July 2nd. With the opposition taking a strong stance on capital gains tax and negative gearing, we're looking at a focus this year on taxation. Corporate tax could be cut by up to 1.5% however, there is likely to be minimal, if any, relief in terms of personal income tax.
There may also be some changes to superannuation. Some potential changes might be reduced contribution caps, the concessional 15% tax on super contributions, an end to 'Transition to Retirement' pensions and taxes on superannuation pension payments.
Overall, the outlook is for minimal growth in government spending, with spending offset by savings elsewhere in the Budget.
Where sharemarkets are concerned, historically we have seen some sideways tracking in past election years, but there has been no evidence to date of a lasting impact caused by an election. In fact, Australian economic growth has actually been strong during election years since 1980.
We'll be watching the announcements closely next week and will keep our clients informed of any meaningful developments.
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
AUSSIE DOLLAR Up (for now)...
At the time of writing, the Australian Dollar is sitting on $US0.770, which begs the question - what on earth is driving it? Read more here
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
So what did we learn?
In this article, Don Stammer adds some much needed balance and clarity, first explaining what happened during the first ten weeks of January, and then moving on to some universal lessons we all need to remember during periods of uncertainty. Read more here
This article was recently published on the 'Cuffelinks' website, a free weekly newsletter for investors and advisers which I wholeheartedly recommend to anyone looking for an intelligent, impartial investment website. For more information, go to cuffelinks.com.au
Or alternatively, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
11/03/16: Buffett's letter to investors
Once again Warren Buffett has presented a compelling long-term view of the growth potential of the US economy. In doing so he draws upon his long lifetime experience to explain that betting against the USA was and remains a foolish investment endeavor…
“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America’s social security promises will be honoured and perhaps made more generous. And, yes, America’s kids will live far better than their parents did.”
The following few sentences, from his introduction, make some telling observations about the last 80 years and the future of the USA..
“It’s an election year, and candidates can’t stop speaking about our country’s problems (which, of course, only they can solve). As a result of this negative drumbeat, many Americans now believe that their children will not live as well as they themselves do. That view is dead wrong: The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history. American GDP per capita is now about $56,000. As I mentioned last year that – in real terms – is a staggering six times the amount in 1930, the year I was born, a leap far beyond the wildest dreams of my parents or their contemporaries. U.S. citizens are not intrinsically more intelligent today, nor do they work harder than did Americans in 1930. Rather, they work far more efficiently and thereby produce far more. This all-powerful trend is certain to continue: America’s economic magic remains alive and well.”
“Today’s politicians need not shed tears for tomorrow’s children. Indeed, most of today’s children are doing well. All families in my upper middle-class neighbourhood regularly enjoy a living standard better than that achieved by John D. Rockefeller Sr. at the time of my birth. His unparalleled fortune couldn’t buy what we now take for granted, whether the field is – to name just a few – transportation, entertainment, communication or medical services. Rockefeller certainly had power and fame; he could not, however, live as well as my neighbours now do. Though the pie to be shared by the next generation will be far larger than today’s, how it will be divided will remain fiercely contentious. Just as is now the case, there will be struggles for the increased output of goods and services between those people in their productive years and retirees, between the healthy and the infirm, between the inheritors and the Horatio Algers, between investors and workers and, in particular, between those with talents that are valued highly by the marketplace and the equally decent hard-working Americans who lack the skills the market prizes. Clashes of that sort have forever been with us – and will forever continue. Congress will be the battlefield; money and votes will be the weapons. Lobbying will remain a growth industry.”
Warren Buffett's logical and optimistic sentiments serve as a gentle reminder to investors, retirees and superannuation members alike that current economic or market conditions are not necessarily predictive. We are always in a 'cycle', and like all cycles (good or bad), they eventually must come to an end.
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.