The attached note looks at the US Presidential and congressional elections that are looming large, especially now that the polls between Donald Trump and Hillary clinton are neck and neck.
Interest Rates Steady
The RBA has resolved to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent ahead of a possible US rate hike on 21 September and the release of Australian CPI figures on 26 October.
As expected, RBA governor Glenn Stevens’ final meeting before handing over the reins to his successor Philip Lowe proved to be uneventful.
The decision to keep rates on hold was in line with market expectations, with the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures September 2016 contract pricing in a 95 per cent chance of ‘no change’ to the cash rate.
UBS chief economist Scott Haslem said the RBA is likely to remain on hold for the “foreseeable future” given firm growth data, a likely lower trend in the Australian dollar and concern about financial stability.
“While inflation will remain low, core inflation is likely to drift modestly higher from here,” Mr Haslem said.
The ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomics Analysis (CAMA) Shadow Board attached a 57 per cent probability to 1.5 per cent being the correct policy setting.
“The CAMA RBA Shadow Board clearly believes that the cash rate should not be cut any further,” said the Shadow Board. “After the RBA’s decision in August to cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 per cent, there is good reason to pause.
“Unemployment fell slightly, but only because of a large increase in part-time employment. With consumer price inflation equaling 1 per cent year-on-year, well below the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target band, and wage growth a modest 2.1 per cent year-on-year, there exist little immediate inflationary pressures,” said the Shadow Board.
Rick Maggi
Interest rates cut to 1.5%
Scams: Be Aware
More than 105,000 scams were reported to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) last year, resulting in losses of more than $84 million. And that's just the tip of the iceberg: many more scams went unreported, often because the victim was too embarrassed to tell authorities about the crime.
To help combat the increasing number of scams, Macquarie Bank have compiled a list of the 12 most common ones they've come across.
Megatrends
UK votes to leave
With UK voters narrowly voting to leave the EU markets, and Prime Minister David Cameron announcing his resignation, markets are reacting quite negatively to the news, as expected.
As outlined in the email the blog post below, the ‘Leave' vote will create a period of instability over the coming days and weeks, creating a potential buying opportunity in the short term. This may also add to the case for the RBA to cut interest rates, which was likely to happen anyway.
We’ll continue to monitor the situation, but in the meantime, it is important not to get too perturbed by the media frenzy as this is likely to be a storm in a teacup.
Enjoy your weekend (and stay away from the newspapers!).
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
Brexit: Stay or Leave?
A balanced summary of the pros and cons of a Brexit ahead of tomorrow's vote. Enjoy! Read more here
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
History on the run...
When news breaks and markets move, content-starved media often invite talking heads to muse on the repercussions. Knowing the difference between this speculative opinion and actual facts can help investors keep their nerve.
The Economy: Not so bad
The past few weeks have been messy with Brexit, the Australian election, terrorist attacks and an attempted coup in Turkey. But rather than dwelling on what's happened so far this year, this article gives us 9 reasons why the future may begin to look a little brighter. A good read!
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver cuts through some of the current pessimism and finds some good, credible reasons to be optimistic. Be aware of the usual seasonal weakness, but don't let it paralyse you with fear... Read more here
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
And it's on!
With the Federal Election now confirmed for July 2 2016, we can all expect a pretty intense battle starting today. But as elections can sometimes destabilise markets and overall sentiment, is this a good or a bad thing for your investments, superannuation or pension fund? In this article, AMPs Shane Oliver takes a look back at previous election cycles with some interesting results. Read more here
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
2016/17 Federal Budget
As usual, the pre-Budget fears and scaremongering turned out to be largely unwarranted. With a significant focus on superannuation, last night's Federal Budget was in many ways a relief to the majority of Australians with superannuation and pensions. In fact, there were a number of positive proposals put forward like the removal not the work test and the reintroduction of tax deductible personal super contributions (up to $25,000). 2016-2017 Federal Budget Summary
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
Interest rate cut (finally)...
For the first time in 12 months, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced it cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent.
The RBA's decision to cut the official interest rate comes after a surprisingly low inflation figure of 1.3 per cent year-on-year was released last Wednesday.
The ASX futures market has been pricing in a 50/50 chance of a rate cut to 1.75 per cent versus 'no change' since the release of the inflation figures.
With a target inflation rate of between 2-3 per cent, concerns about a lack of growth in the Australian economy spurred by the low Consumer Price Index readings appear to have forced the RBA's hand.
Last week's low inflation numbers had made a May rate cut likely, despite the fact that the federal budget is on the same day.
For more information, contact Rick Maggi on 9382 8885 or rickmaggi@westmount.com.au.
26/10/15: Offset Accounts: Better balance
...a better way to manage your mortgage
If you want to repay your mortgage quickly and still have easy access to your additional repayments, an offset account may be worth looking into. Read more here
For more information, contact Rick Maggi at Westmount Financial on 9382 8885.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.