News Updates
AS IT HAPPENS
As global interest rates bottom, concerns about rising inflation and interest rates, quite naturally, come to the fore, particularly in a time where global debt (country, corporate and personal debt) are an all time high. So as investors, retirees and superannuation members, how concerned should we be? AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver gives 7 reasons to be alert, but not alarmed…
Australia continues to defy recession calls. Against this, economic growth is well below potential, with per capita growth running at just 0.8% year on year, which is below that in most major countries. So where to from here? And what will be the impact on interest rates? AMP Capital's Shane Oliver gives us his views for 2018 and beyond...
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to once again leave the official cash rate unchanged at 1.5% with the last rate move back in August 2016. With wages growth remaining modest and concerns emerging around the impact retail deflation is having on the overall economy, interest rates are predicted to be steady for the majority of 2018.
The global risks to inflation and bond yields are finally shifting to the upside, with investment markets starting to take note as evident in the pullback in global share markets seen over the last few days. But how big is the risk? Are we on the brink of another bond crash that will engulf other assets like shares and property?
Although 2017 saw the usual worry list – around President Trump, elections in Europe, China, North Korea and Australian property – it was good for investors. Balanced super funds had returns around 10%, which is pretty good given inflation was around 2%. This year has started favourably but volatility may pick up as geopolitical threats loom a little larger and US inflation rises. This note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook in simple dot point form...
At the start of last year, with global and Australian shares down around 20% from their April/May 2015 highs, the big worry was that the global economy was going back into recession and that there will be another Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Now, with share markets having had a strong run higher, it seems to have been replaced by worries that a crash is around the corner and this will give us the global recession and new GFC that we missed last year!
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has unveiled plans to start shrinking its balance sheet, which has more than quadrupled in size since the global financial crisis (GFC). The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on asset markets—lowering yields and flattening the yield curve...(technical commentary)
The US Federal Reserve provided few surprises following its September meeting. While it left interest rates on hold, it confirmed that it will begin what it calls “balance sheet normalisation” next month and continued to signal its expectation that it will raise interest rates again in December and in the years ahead...
The past financial year turned out far better for investors than had been feared a year ago. This was despite a lengthy list of things to worry about: starting with the Brexit vote and a messy election outcome in Australia both just before the financial year started; concerns about global growth, profits and deflation a year ago; Donald Trump being elected President in the US with some predicting a debilitating global trade war as a result; various elections across Europe feared to see populists gain power; the US Federal Reserve resuming interest rate hikes; North Korea stepping up its missile tests; China moving to put the brakes on its economy amidst ever present concern about its debt levels; and messy growth in Australia along with perennial fears of a property crash and banking crisis.
Predictions of some sort of global financial crisis in 2016 were all the rage. But the last financial year provided a classic reminder to investors to turn down the noise on all the events swirling around investment markets and associated predictions of disaster, and how, when the crowd is negative, things can surprise for the better. But will returns remain reasonable? After reviewing the returns of the last financial year, this note looks at the investment outlook for the 2017-18 financial year.
