What we all know deep down inside...
DFA's VP Jim Parker weighs in on the latest market volatility. As always, Jim's 'Outside the Flags' issue is worth a quick read. Read here.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
25/08/15: What usually happens after a big drop?
Light at the end of the tunnel...
A weekly drop of more than 5 percent has only happened 28 other times since 1980. If you're trying to decide what to do this week, maybe this chart will help. It gives you a look at what happened in the S&P 500 in the weeks following a 5 percent decline. On average, the market is relatively flat the next week, up 1.65 percent over the next four weeks, and up close to 5 percent over the next 12 weeks. Also important to note is that 60 percent of the time, the index moves higher the following week.
Some of the standout years include huge drawdowns of more than 20 percent over the next 12 weeks in 1987 and 2008. On the opposite side of the spectrum, there were massive turnarounds in 1998 and 2009.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
This update is published by Westmount Financial/Westmount Securities Pty Ltd (ABN 42 090 595 289/AFSL 225715). It is intended to provide general information only and does not take into account any particular person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, you should, before acting on any information in this document, speak to us and/or a taxation/finance professional.
24/08/15: Market Update 2 - 24 August 2015
The rout continues
Following a 3.5 percent sell-off on Wall St last Friday night, local and Asian markets continued to shed hard won gains with China leading the way, falling 8.5 percent in just one day. For some background on what has been happening, please read my previous note (Market Update 1 - 21 Aug 2015). For an updated viewpoint Read more here from Russell Investments.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
This update is published by Westmount Financial/Westmount Securities Pty Ltd (ABN 42 090 595 289/AFSL 225715). It is intended to provide general information only and does not take into account any particular person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, you should, before acting on any information in this document, speak to us and/or a taxation/finance professional.
24/08/15: Let's compare...
A few surprises...
Sometimes it helps to take look the world through an unconventional perspective when thinking about the size of things.
So here’s a pretty awesome map from Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett that shows the world according to free-float equity market capitalisation in billions of dollars measured by the MSCI.
The US, with a market cap of $US19.8 trillion, is the biggest and represents 52% of the world’s market cap. Japan is in second place at $US3 trillion, followed by the UK at $US2.7 trillion, and then France at $US1.3 trillion.
Notably, Hong Kong’s market cap is nearly the same size of China (both of which are significantly smaller than countries like the US and Japan).
Meanwhile, Russia, which has a bigger surface area than Pluto, is about the same size as Finland in terms of market cap.
Check out the whole map below.
Capital
Rick MaggiWestmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
21/08/15: Market Update 1 - 21 August 2015
The Share Market Correction...
Since April, local share markets have been extremely volatile to say the least, gradually drifting lower by about 10% (as of today). Other markets have also fared poorly, e.g. Chinese shares -32%, Asian shares (ex Japan) -18%, Emerging market shares -18% and Eurozone shares -13%. Even the US share market, which has been relatively stable during this period has given back about 6%.
What's happening?
First the backdrop. It should be recognised that the seasonal pattern for shares typically sees rougher conditions over the period May to November, consistent with the old saying "sell in May and go away, buy again on St Leger's Day" (a UK horse race in September).
So with this typically difficult May-November period as our blank canvas, consider the following list of worries...
Greece: Between April and June the immediate, highly publicised concern was, understandably, Greece. Thankfully, the emotional charge surrounding Greece and the Eurozone has, at least for now, greatly subsided, with the general agreement to a third bailout program. Of course, we could see a small flare-up again with today's news of a snap Greek election.
China: More importantly, bubbling away in the background, have been legitimate concerns about China's slowing economy, and the impact this might have on the global economy, particularly commodity reliant countries like Australia. These worries have come to the fore in recent weeks in response to soft Chinese economic data, fuelled by China's recent decision to devalue their currency - an unpopular move, but I suspect a positive in the long run - what's good for China generally helps Australia.
It should also be noted that before China's share market 'crash' of 30%, the Shanghai Index had risen by over 250% in just the previous two years. And this phenomenon is not new. In 2007/2008, the Shanghai Index rose 90%, only to fall 70%. So I believe the takeaway here is to not read too deeply into the Chinese share market.
Commodities: Commodities were already in a secular bear market, reflecting a surge in supply and price upswing during the 'boom' years. Slowing growth in China and the rising trend in the value of the $US only adds further pressure on commodities and Australia's challenged resource sector.
Unfortunately slowing growth in China and its subsequent currency devaluation has also put further pressure on already weak emerging market economies, which these days represent more than 50% of world GDP. Emerging economies really do 'matter'.
US interest rates heading-up: The combination of slower growth in China, falling commodity prices, weakness in the emerging world and the fragility of growth in developed countries indicates that inflation will not be a problem for a while yet. Just the same, the US Federal Reserve appears to be heading towards a rate hike soon and this is creating intense uncertainty - markets don't like uncertainty.
Is it a correction or something worse?
While it's certainly no fun, periodic sharp falls in the range of 5% to even 20% are actually quite normal and healthy. Of course, it becomes more concerning if the rising trend in share prices gives way to a declining trend and a new bear market sets in.
But as Sir John Templeton once observed "bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria". There seems to be a lot of scepticism out there. Shares are simply not seeing the sorts of conditions that normally precede a new cyclical bear market: shares are not generally overvalued; they are not over loved by investors; and low interest rates are likely to remain for quite some time.
Of course, this update hasn't taken you particularly circumstances into account, therefore, if you need personal advice speak to us, or contact your financial adviser.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
This update is published by Westmount Financial/Westmount Securities Pty Ltd (ABN 42 090 595 289/AFSL 225715). It is intended to provide general information only and does not take into account any particular person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, you should, before acting on any information in this document, speak to us and/or a taxation/finance professional.
20/08/15: Time is on your side...
The Vanguard 2015 Index Chart
Every year, fund manager Vanguard produce a graphical, chronological 'snapshot' of the performance of local and international sharemarkets, property, cash and bonds, along with significant news events of the day. Always worth a look. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
29/07/15: China: What you need to know
Market update...
The Chinese share market has fallen dramatically in recent months. So what does this mean for you? Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
06/07/15: Greece after the "no" vote
Should you be worried?
As generally expected, the "No" vote won the day, with over 60% of Greeks rejecting further 'austerity' measures. So clearly it's back to the negotiating table, for now. So what does this mean for investors going forward. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
18/06/15: Tax concessions and tax reform in Australia
A well balanced commentary...
As house prices rise and/or when economic activity slows, the inevitably cries for tax reform can be heard from both sides of politics. This note focuses on the debate around the four major "tax concessions" in Australia - negative gearing, capital gains tax discounts, dividend imputation and, of course, superannuation. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
03/06/15: The Australian economy...
Where are we headed?
As local markets slide and interest rates fall, it would be easy to assume that Australia's fortunes have taken a sudden turn for the worst. That would be a mistake. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
27/05/15: Super Co-contribution: Are you eligible?
Still worth it...
The Government's superannuation co-contribution for lower income earners seems to shrink by the year, but it's still worth the effort. Read here for more information.
Or if in doubt, call us on 9382 8885 before June 30th.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
21/05/15: Don't look back - what drives potential returns?
A medium term view...
AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver discusses the thinking behind their investment projections, and offer some interesting insights for the medium term.
This is an excellent read for retirees and investors - a little technical in parts, but worth persevering. In the end, I think the most important takeaway is that we should have reasonable return expectations going forward, and watch your asset allocation more than usual. Please call me if you have any questions.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
20/05/15: EOFY strategies to consider, right now...
A checklist
With just over a month to go, and the Federal Budget behind us, now is the time to prepare for the end of the financial year. Created by AMP, this is an excellent link for those clients needing a checklist. As you would expect, it's AMP-centric, but the fundamentals are universal. As always, feel free to call me personally if you'd like to take a closer look at your personal situation. Read EOFY checklist
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
12/05/15: Correction time?
Or something worse?
The last few weeks have seen the investment scene hit another rough patch. So is this just a seasonal glitch or something more sinister in the making? Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
08/05/15: Words of wisdom from two old pros
Quotes to invest by...
With interest rates at an all time low, many cash investors are now, somewhat reluctantly, being forced to consider alternatives. But with this comes some danger and discomfort.
At 81 and 94, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have earned the market's respect through performance, but they've also earned the appreciation of the broader investment community through their willingness to share what they've learned and how they've been so successful.
So it seems timely to revisit some of their more famous quotes and advice...
Warren Buffett:
“Time is the enemy of the poor business and the friend of the great business.”
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."
“I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.”
“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”
Charlie Munger:
“When any guy offers you a chance to earn lots of money without risk, don't listen to the rest of his sentence. Follow this, and you'll save yourself a lot of misery.”
“People have always had this craving to have someone tell them the future. Long ago, kings would hire people to read sheep guts. There's always been a market for people who pretend to know the future. Listening to today's forecasters is just as crazy as when the king hired the guy to look at the sheep guts.”
I'm not sure that I entirely agree with Charlie's last point, but I'm happy to give him due deference.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
06/05/15: Treasurer vows no super tax changes
Encouraging news
As the Federal Budget moves ever closer (next Tuesday evening), the rumour mill is working overtime, so it was encouraging to get some clarity from Treasurer Joe Hockey this morning, with regard to possible tax changes on superannuation. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
29/04/15: Where are we in the investment cycle?
Approaching a bubble?
It is now six years since the Global Financial Crisis ended. From their 2009 lows US shares are up 212%, global shares are up 159% and Australian shares are up 91% Despite this, there seem to be constant predictions of a new disaster. This note looks at where we are in the investment cycle. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
18/03/15: China: Boom or Bust?
…or something in between?
China's lack of transparency often sends the wrong signals to the rest of the world. We all know that China's economy has slowed, but is it heading towards a bust, or is this yet another false alarm? Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear Focus. Better Solutions.
04/03/15: Australian economy still in the doldrums...
More help needed...
Through 2013-14 it seemed the Australian economy was starting to transition away from a reliance on mining investment to more broad based growth. Unfortunately this transition has wavered a bit recently and growth has remained below trend. Fortunately, the RBA has recognised the problem and resumed cutting interest rates. This note looks at the outlook for growth and rates and what it means for profits and investors. Read more here
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial Clear View. Better Focus.
13/02/15: Shares surge to new highs
Planets aligned...
The share market rallied to a six-year high today due to a positive cocktail of factors, including Rio Tinto's massive shareholder returns, rising oil prices, decent company earnings, the potential for more interest rate cuts, and optimism over Greece and the Ukraine.
The market's strongest one day gain in six weeks sent the All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX200 indices to their highest levels since mid-2008.
At the close today, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 133.9 points, or 2.33%, to 5877.5. The broader All Ordinaries index was up 127.8 points, or 2.24%, to 5835.5.
Interestingly, the big miners led the gains, with BHP up 4.8% to $32.17 and Rio Tinto up 6.5% to $63.79 after announcing a $US2 billion share buyback, while RBA governor Glenn Steven's comments today that more than one further rate cut may be needed if unemployment continues to rise lifted the banks and Telstra as the desperate search for yield continues.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial