Economics

Trump & Trade War Risks

Trump & Trade War Risks

After the calm of 2017, 2018 is proving to be anything but with shares falling in February on worries about US inflation, only to rebound and then fall again with markets back to or below their February low, notwithstanding a nice US bounce overnight. So what’s driving the weakness and what should investors do? 

Geopolitical Risks In The Year Of The Dog

Geopolitical Risks In The Year Of The Dog

In 2018 it’s already clear that geopolitical events remain significant, for example with Trump’s tariffs and the messy Italian election result. Despite their benign financial market impact over the last two years they are worth keeping an eye on. This note takes a look at why geopolitics is more important for investors these days and what to look out for this year....

Why All The Share Market Volatility?

Why All The Share Market Volatility?

The return of inflation has been mentioned quite a lot recently as a reason why share markets are jumpy all of a sudden, by what has the return of inflation in the United States really got to do with share market volatility?

Australia: 5 Reasons Why Growth Will Be OK

Australia: 5 Reasons Why Growth Will Be OK

Australia continues to defy recession calls. Against this, economic growth is well below potential, with per capita growth running at just 0.8% year on year, which is below that in most major countries. So where to from here? And what will be the impact on interest rates? AMP Capital's Shane Oliver gives us his views for 2018 and beyond...

9 COMMON INVESTMENT MISTAKES

9 COMMON INVESTMENT MISTAKES

FROM THE VAULT:

(Originally posted on 24 November 2016)

The 9 Habits of highly ineffective investors...

As the Trump rally continues, its important to stop, take a deep breath and think about potential pitfalls going forward as the fear of missing out and 'animal spirits' take centre stage.

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong...

What is the risk of a US recession?

What is the risk of a US recession?

Was the 10% selloff the 'entree' of what's to come, or just a 10% correction?

Living the Good Life...

Living the Good Life...

Whether you’re twenty-something and single or married with kids, life is full of challenges and opportunities. How can you handle money better so you’re not held back by debts and financial stress? 

Time for a share market correction?

Time for a share market correction?

Is this the beginning of a share market correction we had to have?

Inflation: The risks to shares & property

Inflation: The risks to shares & property

The global risks to inflation and bond yields are finally shifting to the upside, with investment markets starting to take note as evident in the pullback in global share markets seen over the last few days. But how big is the risk? Are we on the brink of another bond crash that will engulf other assets like shares and property? 

2018: A List of Lists

2018: A List of Lists

Although 2017 saw the usual worry list – around President Trump, elections in Europe, China, North Korea and Australian property – it was good for investors. Balanced super funds had returns around 10%, which is pretty good given inflation was around 2%. This year has started favourably but volatility may pick up as geopolitical threats loom a little larger and US inflation rises. This note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook in simple dot point form...

Market outlook for 2018

Market outlook for 2018

By the standards of recent years, 2017 was relatively quiet. Sure there was the usual “worry list” – about Trump, elections in Europe, China as always, North Korea and the perennial property crash in Australia. And there was a mania in bitcoin. But overall it has been pretty positive for investors...

US interest rates: The Fed hikes again

US interest rates: The Fed hikes again

The US Federal Reserve raised rates last night by another 0.25%, noting continuing strengthening in the US labour market and solid economic growth. The question now is where to from here? Will the Fed get more aggressive? Should investors be concerned?

Financial Planning: Goals based investing 101

Financial Planning: Goals based investing 101

Why do we invest? Why do we put money in the bank? Is it simply because we should or we’re told we’re should? No – it’s because it helps us to achieve our goals.

Goals-based investing is increasingly popular as a financial planning strategy – it’s a pathway to financial freedom and choices such as the chance to travel, provide our kids with a good education, purchase things we love, build our homes and create foundations for our future.

So how does it work and how can you make goals-based investing work for you?

Investing: Cautious optimism better for your health...

Investing: Cautious optimism better for your health...

At the start of last year, with global and Australian shares down around 20% from their April/May 2015 highs, the big worry was that the global economy was going back into recession and that there will be another Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Now, with share markets having had a strong run higher, it seems to have been replaced by worries that a crash is around the corner and this will give us the global recession and new GFC that we missed last year!

Market Update: Bubbles, busts, and bitcoin

Market Update: Bubbles, busts, and bitcoin

The surge in bitcoin has attracted much interest. Over the last five years, it has soared from $US12 to over $US8000; this year it’s up 760%. Its enthusiasts see it as the currency of the future and increasingly as a way to instant riches with rapid price gains only reinforcing this view... 

Interest Rates: THE LONG UNWINDING ROAD

Interest Rates: THE LONG UNWINDING ROAD

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has unveiled plans to start shrinking its balance sheet, which has more than quadrupled in size since the global financial crisis (GFC). The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on asset markets—lowering yields and flattening the yield curve...(technical commentary)

Australian Share Market Rallies Past 6000

Australian Share Market Rallies Past 6000

The local sharemarket rose 1% today, taking the ASX200 and All Ordinaries Index well above the 6,000 threshold, heights we haven't seen in almost a decade...